Mixon's Research on the Impact of the Pacific Palisades Wildfires on Surfers' Migration Patterns Just Published

New research by Turner College economist Frank Mixon and Spencer Eli Kagan of the University of California – Berkeley examining surfers' responses to the decision by California governmental authorities to close multiple access ramps connected to the Pacific Coast Highway (PCH) for months after containment of the 2025 Pacific Palisades fires, which resulted in the loss of access to some of southern California’s high-quality surf breaks, is now set for publication in a 2027 issue of the American Journal of Economics and Sociology. As indicated in our 27-March-2026 post about this study, Mixon and Kagan point out that in response to beach closures, many Los Angeles area surfers migrated to open breaks, thus increasing congestion at these surf breaks. The added congestion caused by the migration tested the social norms that traditionally govern surf break utilization. Thus, as Mixon and Kagan argue, the migration of surfers in response to the California wildfires serves as somewhat of a natural experiment in the efficacy of customs and norms in governing the use of a common-property or common-pool resource such as a surf break.

To understand how the California wildfires have impacted surf break usage patterns in the Los Angeles area, Kagan conducted several structured interviews with southern California surfers. Perhaps the most interesting and relevant qualitative element gleaned from the structured interviews is how sudden cuts to access after the Los Angeles area wildfires reshaped crowd dynamics across Los Angeles area surf breaks. When key surf breaks became functionally unavailable, the breaks that remained open experienced crowds far beyond their typical carrying capacity. Another striking qualitative result was the post-wildfires shift in surfing norms within the lineup. More specifically, there was a prevailing sentiment reflecting a shared understanding that displaced surfers had limited options. General aggression levels appeared lower than expected, even when traditional violations of surfing norms occurred. The structured interviews revealed that surf break type also played a role in shaping post-wildfires surfing norms. 

Mixon and Kagan classify the in-migration status Los Angeles area surf breaks to allow for statistical analysis of the migration patterns of Los Angeles-area surfers in the aftermath of the wildfires. The results suggest that Los Angeles-area surf breaks that exhibited the fiercest degree of localism before the wildfires were 31.4 percentage points less likely to experience in-migration from Los Angeles-area surfers who were displaced from other surf breaks due to beach closures related to the wildfires. At the same time, beach closures due to the wildfires seem to have pushed displaced surfers toward more congested surf breaks, and toward surf breaks with low water quality. The takeaways from these results are that surfers who were displaced from their usual surf spots as a result of the wildfires sought to avoid migrating to Los Angeles area surf breaks that were known to exhibit the highest degree of localism prior to the wildfires, and that in doing so they ultimately migrated to surf breaks that were known to be the most congested, and to offer anything other than the cleanest water, prior to the wildfires. Given the additional finding of a greater likelihood of migrating to alternative surf breaks offering the highest quality waves, the seemingly sub-optimal behavior perhaps emanated from both the surfers’ attempts to maintain a customary surfing experience and their experience with a more accommodating attitude displayed by previously territorial local surfers that is described through the structured interviews.