New Research by Mixon Investigates Impact of Oil Price Volatility in India

With over one billion population, India is the third largest consumer of petroleum on the globe. To maintain this position, India imports a substantial percentage of its total oil consumption. The world oil market can be extremely volatile. Given India’s current position as a large importer of oil, how does oil price volatility affect the Indian economy? This question is addressed in new research by Turner College economist Frank Mixon and his co-authors, Kamal Upadhyaya of the University of New Haven and Raja Nag of New York Institute of Technology, in new research appearing in the International Journal of Financial Studies. Results reported in the study suggest that innovations in oil prices explain about 10.5% of the variation in India’s aggregate output over three months, rising to about 11.5% over six months, before falling to 10.25% percent over nine months, and again to about 9.5% over one year.

Relatedly, impulse response functions presented and explained in the study show that a shock in oil prices impacts aggregate output beginning in the third period, reaching a plateau after the sixth period. Lastly, Mixon and his colleagues caution that the results of their study may not apply globally, or even to other south Asian countries. Thus, the approach they use to examine the impact of oil price shocks on India’s economy should be applied to other countries, particularly those in south Asia (e.g., Sri Lanka, Nepal, etc.).

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