With
high inflation rates currently posing a problem in countries all around the
globe, a new study by Turner College economics professor Frank Mixon and his colleague Puneet Vatsa of Lincoln University in
New Zealand on business cycles and inflation is almost perfectly timed. The study, which was recently accepted for
publication by the International Journal
of Monetary Economics and Finance, updates stylized facts about the cyclical
associations between economic output and prices. In it, Vatsa and Mixon apply the relatively
new Hamilton filter, a statistical approach that lends itself well to extracting
the cyclical components from non-stationary data series in small samples, to price
and output series for 27 countries, including the U.S., from 1999 through 2020. The study finds mixed evidence regarding the
cyclicality of inflation (i.e., the relationship between business cycles and
inflation). For example, Vatsa and Mixon
report that inflation is acyclical in India, the United Kingdom, and the Euro
Area, while it is weakly procyclical in Canada and the U.S., strongly
procyclical in China, and strongly countercyclical in Brazil.
The International
Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance publishes both applied and policy-oriented research, with
an emphasis on empirical studies in monetary economics, international
economics, financial economics and financial markets from developed and
developing economies.
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