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Turner Business Faculty Trailblazers

Smooth Glide or Bumpy Ride?

In their 2022 article appearing in the Journal of Financial Planning, Turner College finance professor Gisung Moon and his co-authors, Doug Waggle of the University of West Florida and Hongbok Lee of Western Illinois University, point out that rising rates of inflation mean that bonds are providing negative real returns for retirees in need of safe cash flows.  Unlike prior research that assumes that bond rates and inflation will return to normal over five or 10 years, Moon’s study considers scenarios where rates return to normal over five, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 years, or never.  The research finds that post-retirement glide path choices that would have worked in the past, such as a 20 percent-80 percent stock-bond mix and a four percent withdrawal rate over 30 years, are no longer safe investment choices in the current environment.  As Moon indicated to Turner Business, “Even with lower withdrawal rates and/or shorter retirement horizons, retirees are best served with decreasing glide paths that boost their early allocation to stock. Decreasing glide path options result in lower failure rates across the different portfolio equity levels, but the higher the allocation to stock, the less the choice of glide path matters.”

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