Stoked for Surf Tourism? New Study by Turner College Economist Frank Mixon Examines Threats to Surf Tourism in Oceania

New research conducted by Turner College economist Frank Mixon explores threats to surfing tourism in Oceania, a group of countries in the South Pacific (e.g., Australia, New Zealand, Fiji, New Caledonia, etc.) where surfing spots of various quality abound. As Mixon states, such a study is worthwhile because the global surf tourism market, which is a component of global adventure sport tourism, is expected to nearly double over the next decade, easily eclipsing $110 billion. The surf tourism threat index Mixon develops includes information on surf break localism (i.e., the effort local surfers put into blocking non-locals' access), water quality (i.e., level of contaminants), remoteness (i.e., ease of access), season length (months), shark presence and wave quality.

Mixon's research includes tests of the index's internal consistency, as well as tests of its efficacy in explaining variations in the annual number of surfing tourists received across Oceania (per million population). According to the results, a one-point increase in a country's surf tourism threat index value is associated with about 20% fewer surf tourist visits per year. Adding to this difficulty is the presence of excessive government regulation, which, according to the study, is an issue in places like Papua New Guinea. Cutting against this grain, however, are the massive benefits associated with the presence of two of the world's most famous surf breaks, Teahupo'o in French Polynesia and Cloudbreak in Fiji. Lastly, the study, which is now accepted for publication in a future issue of Sustainability, also tests for a bidirectional relationship between the surf tourism threat index and the annual number of surf tourists (per million population). In these cases, the results suggest that the negative association between threats to surf tourism and visits by surf tourists may be even larger in magnitude.