Mapping the Structural Divide in U.S. Higher Education

University of Wyoming business school dean Scott Beaulier recently discussed the closure of Hampshire College and the fact that Central Michigan University's enrollment has fallen to levels not seen by the institution since the 1970s. This occurred at the same time that this blog, Turner Business, reported that CSU's enrollment fell by 2.4%, representing the only headcount drop across the USG for spring semester 2026. It is in response to data like these that Substack essayist (Sacred Cow BBQ) and higher education enthusiast Kyle Saunders used eight indicators drawn from federal data — IPEDS, College Scorecard, O*NET, WICHE projections, the Anthropic Economic Index — to position every four-year institution in the country along two dimensions: how resilient the institution itself is, and how well-positioned its graduates are in the labor market. In reading the map, institutions above the median on both axes are "High Capacity" while those below both are "High Stress." The other two quadrants — "Market Misaligned" and "Structurally Exposed" — capture institutions with mixed structural positions.

As indicated in the image above, CSU is mapped as a "High Stress" institution, residing below the median on each axis. This positioning indicates that CSU is highly susceptible to financial and enrollment shocks, and that it fails to adequately position its graduates for the job market ahead. Given the way the USG currently funds public education in Georgia, financial shocks are directly tied, even if with a one-year lag, to enrollment shocks. With enrollment falling this academic year (both semesters) CSU's institutional resilience will again be tested in near future. If attempts to deal with the enrollment issue include marked changes to the admissions process, as it seems they do, then CSU's post-college market position will be harmed.