Turner College Economist's Research Featured in USA Today

Yesterday's post about clutch play in the NBA Playoffs described how USA Today sports columnist Josh Peter contacted Turner College economist Frank Mixon to discuss the "clutch play" of Indiana Pacers' Tyrese Haliburton over the past few months, including his game-winning shot against the Oklahoma City Thunder to win the first game in this year's NBA Championship series. Since that post was written, Peter's column has appeared in the national publication and includes this excerpt:

"Measuring clutch performances strictly by game-winning shots is flawed, according to researcher Franklin Mixon Jr., a professor of economics at Columbus State University in Georgia. 'This approach is subject to confirmation bias as fans will remember these game-winning baskets but tend to forget late-game turnovers and missed shots (free throws) by who they consider to be clutch players,’' Mixon wrote in an email to USA TODAY Sports. Mixon is co-author of a 2013 study – 'Homo certus in professional basketball? Empirical evidence from the 2011 NBA Playoffs’' – he says supports the notion that 'clutch performance' is generally a myth. The study compared players' average productivity per quarter for the first three quarters of their playoffs games to their fourth-quarter performances in those games. 'We found that productivity during the first three quarters generally exceeded that during the fourth quarter of these games,’' Mixon said. With the same variables from the study, Mixon ran Haliburton’s numbers from Game 1 of the NBA Finals. That included field-goal attempts per minute, field goals made per minute, field-goal percentage and points scored per minute. He also factored in defensive rebounds and assists. 'Haliburton's late-game productivity was slightly lower during Game 1 compared to what he did during the first 3 quarters,’' Mixon wrote. 'Again, however, the differences aren't significant. Based on our approach, his performance was typical of NBA players.'"

Mixon's view on clutch performance was supported in Peter's column by Duke University behavioral economist Dan Ariely, who explained to Peter that when he looked at the data, he also couldn't find real evidence of clutch players, although he did find lots of evidence that people believe that clutch players exist. An opposing view, that clutch play exists, is held by NBA commentator Stephen A. Smith, Vangelis Sarlis of International Hellenic University in Greece, and Lorena Martin, an assistant professor of clinical data sciences and operations at USC, each of whom is quoted in Peter's column. This is an ages-old debate that looks to continue into the distant future.

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