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New Research by Turner College Economist Explores Macroeconomic Implications of Massive Debt Service Obligations

Federal government spending in response to COVID-19 and military conflicts in Europe and the Middle East have combined to recently push the U.S. national debt above $1 trillion for the first time in history. As expected, annual debt service payments have risen sharply over the past four years, increasing from about $521 billion to $940 billion, representing an 80.4% increase. A new study by Turner College economist Frank Mixon and his colleagues Richard Cebula of the University of Tennessee, Jason Jolley of Ohio University and Kamal Upadhyaya of the University of New Haven develops a conceptual macroeconomic model to more fully appreciate the monetary policy impact on U.S. Treasury debt service and growth of the national debt that divides federal government spending into separate categories for (1) exogenous real expenditures on new goods and services and (2) interest rate sensitive payments made by the government to service its national debt. According to the study, which is set to appear in a future issue Theoretical and Applied Economics, if the absolute value of the interest rate sensitivity of the latter form of government spending is greater than that associated with household consumption and business investment, the macroeconomic multiplier associated with expansionary monetary policy is negative. This situation presents a vexing problem for policymakers, particularly in the presence of rising debt service obligations.

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